US Opinion Leaders Deeply Divided on Israel-Gaza War

When it comes to the conflict in the Middle East, American foreign policy professionals are more divided along partisan lines than the general public.

US President-elect Donald Trump is set to inherit an unprecedented and intractable conflict in the Middle East, one that has slowly drawn Israel, the United States’ closest regional ally, into a broader confrontation with Iran. As he prepares to take office for the second time, the world eagerly waits to see how he intends to resolve this conflict and establish a lasting peace in the Middle East.

A 2024 Chicago Council-University of Texas survey, conducted August 7–October 3 among 471 foreign policy opinion leaders, finds stark partisan divisions in views of US policy on the Israel-Gaza war. Mirroring the partisan divisions found in the 2024 Chicago Council Survey of the American public, Republican elites favor a more militarized and heavy-handed approach than Democratic and Independent opinion leaders, who favor more diplomatic and restrained policies toward the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Key Findings

• Majorities of Republican opinion leaders favor supporting Israel militarily until the remaining hostages held captive in Gaza are returned (86%) and Hamas is dismantled (70%).
• Democratic and Independent opinion leaders are divided on whether to support Israel militarily until the remaining hostages are released (49% and 51% favor, respectively) but oppose supporting Israel militarily “until Hamas is dismantled or destroyed” (71% and 63%).
• While majorities of Republicans oppose restricting US military aid to Israel until it negotiates a ceasefire with Hamas (80%), majorities of Democratic and Independent opinion leaders support pressuring Israel to negotiate a ceasefire with an arms embargo (68% and 59%, respectively).
• Republican opinion leaders support the use of US troops if Israel is attacked by one of its neighbors (58%) or Iran (69%); Democratic and Independent opinion leaders oppose using US troops to defend Israel if it were attacked by its neighbors (66% and 64%, respectively) or Iran (55% each).
• Republicans oppose the United States playing a leading role in the reconstruction of Gaza (76%) and recognizing an independent Palestinian state (69%). By contrast, majorities of Democratic and Independent opinion leaders favor officially recognizing a Palestinian state (83% and 74%, respectively) and playing a leading role in the reconstruction of Gaza (70% and 56%).

Opinion Leaders Divided along Partisan Lines on Military Aid to Israel

The United States has provided Israel with a considerable amount of political, diplomatic, and military support since October 7, 2023—including an estimated $17.9 billion in security assistance to support its military operations in Gaza. Foreign policy opinion leaders are deeply divided along partisan lines in their assessments of this support.

Majorities of Republican opinion leaders favor supporting Israeli militarily until all the hostages are returned (86%) and Hamas’ military capacity is destroyed (70%), while Democratic and Independent opinion leaders are far less likely to favor such policies: half favor supporting Israel militarily until the hostages are returned (49% and 51%, respectively) and between three and four in 10 favor continued support until Hamas is eradicated (29% and 37%).

Overall, the American public favors supporting Israel militarily until all the hostages are returned (60%) but is divided on whether to continue supporting it until Hamas is dismantled (49% favor). Among partisans, Republicans favor supporting Israel military until both conditions are met (76% and 67%, respectively), while Democrats and Independents are more hesitant: five in 10 favor continued support until the hostages are returned (55% and 52%, respectively) and four in 10 are committed to supporting Israel until Hamas is destroyed (41% and 44%).

Republican opinion leaders would also oppose restricting US military aid to Israel until it negotiates an end to its war with Hamas (80%), while majorities of Democratic and Independent opinion leaders support pressuring Israel to negotiate a ceasefire with an arms embargo (68% and 59%, respectively). 1

Four to Six in 10 Opinion Leaders Consider Wider War in Middle East a Critical Threat

Tensions in the Middle East reached a critical point in September after Israel assassinated the secretary general of Hezbollah in Beirut, launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, and traded airstrikes with Iranian-backed groups across the region. Since then, the scale and geographic scope of hostilities between Israel, Iran, and its proxies have grown dramatically, pushing the region closer to a wider war.

The potential for wider escalation in the Middle East is considered a critical threat to the vital interests of the United States by about half of Democratic (55%) and Independent (52%) opinion leaders, but only four in 10 Republican opinion leaders (40%). This is a greater partisan split than among the US public. According to a recent Council-Ipsos poll fielded August 9–11, 2024, about half of Americans overall (52%) see an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war as a critical threat, including majorities of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (54%), and half of Independents (49%).

Similar to the US public, foreign policy opinion leaders are generally less concerned about the potential for a wider war in the Middle East than they are about issues like global democratic decline and the territorial ambitions of foreign adversaries (see appendix figure 2).

Democratic and Independent Opinion Leaders Oppose Use of US Troops to Defend Israel

The Biden administration continues to increase the US military presence in the Middle East, most recently deploying additional troops to support the 40,000 already on the ground, bolster regional security, and, if necessary, come to Israel’s defense.

Although Republican foreign policy opinion leaders are less concerned about the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East than other international concerns, Republican opinion leaders support putting US boots on the ground to defend Israel if it were attacked by Iran (69%) or its neighbors (58%). However, they oppose the use of troops as part of a peacekeeping force to enforce a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians (55% oppose, 45% favor).

By contrast, Democratic and Independent opinion leaders mostly oppose sending American troops to defend Israel if it were attacked by its neighbors (66% and 64%, respectively) or Iran (55% each). These opinion leaders would, however, support the use of US troops as part of an international peacekeeping force to enforce a peace agreement (73% and 55%).

The general public is much more likely than opinion leaders to oppose the use of US troops to defend Israel if it were attacked by Iran (56%) or its neighbors (55%), but a majority favors their participation in an international peacekeeping force to enforce a peace agreement between the warring parties (54%). The views of Independents largely align with those of their opinion leaders, everyday Democrats and Republicans are less likely to favor the use of the troops in these circumstances than their opinion leaders.

Republican Opinion Leaders Oppose Palestinian State and US Leadership in Gaza Reconstruction

As the Israel-Gaza war has intensified, so too have international calls for the United States and other Western powers to recognize Palestine as a sovereign state. The Biden administration supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but it has yet to officially recognize a Palestinian state, asserting that Palestinian statehood should be achieved through a negotiated settlement between the Israelis and Palestinians rather than unilateral recognition by the United States.

With Trump returning to the Oval Office, it remains unclear how his administration will view the diplomatic landscape going forward. In his prior administration, Trump expressed support for a two-state solution and proposed a peace settlement that would have allowed for limited Palestinian sovereignty. At the same time, he moved the US embassy in Israel to the divided city of Jerusalem, which the Palestinians also claim as their capital, and withheld funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees. Since Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, Trump has expressed support for the Israeli government’s military actions in Gaza. Far-right members of the Israeli government are hopeful that the Trump administration’s arrival will allow Israel the political space to annex the West Bank.

While majorities of Democratic and Independent opinion leaders favor the United States formally recognizing a Palestinian state (83% and 74%, respectively), the majority of Republicans oppose it (69%). The American public generally follows these same partisan lines, but half overall favor recognizing the state of Palestine (49%). Nearly seven in 10 (66%) Democratic supporters favor recognizing a Palestinian state, while only half of Independents (49%) and a third of Republican Party supporters (33%) agree.

The majority of Republican opinion leaders (76%) similarly oppose the United States playing a leading role in the reconstruction of Gaza after the war, while the majority of Democratic (70%) and Independent (56%) opinion leaders favor leading reconstruction efforts. Economists say rebuilding the Gaza Strip, which has been decimated by Israeli military operations since October 7, 2023, would cost more than $80 billion.

Most Americans are unwilling to play a leading role in the reconstruction of Gaza (57%), and while majorities of Republicans (71%) and Independents (58%) oppose the United States undertaking the feat, about half of Democrats (51%) favor it.

Conclusion

When it comes to the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict and US policy toward the current Israel-Hamas war, foreign policy opinion leaders are deeply divided along partisan lines—even more so than the general public. The data show that Republican opinion leaders favor supporting Israel militarily until all its objectives are achieved, while Democratic and Independent opinion leaders are more hesitant, advocating for greater restraint and diplomatic support for Palestinians. This divergence highlights a broader ideological split; where Republicans see robust military backing as essential for Israel’s security, Democrats and Independents express concern about escalation and advocate for a balanced approach that considers the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

With Donald Trump returning to the presidency, the views of Republican opinion leaders identified in this survey point to the kinds of policies the second Trump administration is likely to pursue. Many of Trump’s picks for senior positions in his incoming administration, including Marco Rubio (nominee for secretary of state), Elise Stefanik (nominee for ambassador to the United Nations), and Mike Huckabee (nominee for ambassador to Israel), are staunch defenders of Israel. Trump himself has reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” in Israel’s wars with Hamas and Hezbollah. Democrats calling for restraint in this conflict are likely to find their voices diluted or completely ignored in the next administration—and especially now that Republicans control both the House and the Senate.

• 1In a separate but similar question, a bare majority of everyday Americans (53%) support restricting US military aid to Israel so it cannot use that aid in military operations against Palestinians, but stark partisan differences exist. Nearly seven in 10 (68%) Democratic Party supporters favor restricting US military aid to Israel, while a slim majority of Independents (54%) agree. However, only 35 percent of Republicans support military aid restrictions, while the majority (59%) oppose such.