Russians See Greater Reward than Risk in Closer Relations with China

^{Source:
August 20–26, 2020 | n = 1,601
Levada Analytical Center}

Russians Say China Gets More Respect than United States and Russia

A solid majority of Russians still believe China is respected more today than 10 years ago, though this percentage is down from when this question was last asked two years ago (56% today; 67% in 2019). 1 In fact, only 8 percent of Russians think China is respected less; the rest say it is respected about the same as it was 10 years ago (29%).

By comparison, more Russians believe China elicits greater respect relative to 10 years ago than their own country, though a plurality also says Russia is respected more than it was a decade ago (42%, down from 55% in 2019). In contrast, a plurality (46%) say the United States has lost respect over the last 10 years (down from 2019).

• 1 The percentage saying each country is respected more has decreased for all three countries asked about, perhaps reflecting the difficulties each faced from the challenges associated with the coronavirus outbreak.

^{Source:
January 29-February 2, 2021 | n = 1,616
Levada Analytical Center}

Russians Expect Closer Russia-China Ties in 10 Years

According to analysts at the Carnegie Moscow Center, Russia is becoming asymmetrically dependent on China in terms of its increased reliance on China as a trade partner, increased usage of yuan held in Russia’s Central Bank, and increased dependence on Chinese industrial equipment and technology.

But the Russian public does not appear worried about the risks of growing dependence on Beijing. Fewer than three in ten Russians (28%) say increased cooperation between Russia and China means Russia is becoming more dependent on China.2 Instead, a majority of Russians (56%) say Moscow’s active cooperation with Beijing is not increasing Russia’s dependence on China. And, a majority of Russians think their country’s ties to China strengthen Russia’s international status (55%; 9% say those ties weaken it).

Moreover, Russians expect their country’s ties with China will only grow stronger over the coming decade. Nearly six in ten Russians (57%) believe that in 10 years, Russia and China will grow closer. A third believe relations between Russia and China will continue as they are now (32%), and just 5 percent think they will grow further apart.

• 2 Among those Russians who say the increased cooperation between the two countries makes Russia more dependent on China (28% overall), 38 percent are somewhat concerned and 25 percent are very concerned.

^{Source:
January 29-February 2, 2021 | n = 1,616
Levada Analytical Center}

One reason some analysts worry about Russia growing too dependent on China is that it could put the Russian government in a tenuous position if US-China tensions are defused. In other words, China’s relations with the United States could improve while Russia’s ties to the United States and Europe remained strained, and it would be unclear how supportive China would be toward Russia in a less competitive US-China scenario.

The survey results show that a slight plurality of Russians believe Russia’s relationship with China weakens Moscow’s ability to improve relations with the United States (34%), though a larger plurality thinks there will not be any change in US-Russian relations 10 years from now (42%). Of the rest, more say the two countries will grow further apart (29%) than think they will grow closer (19%).

Conclusion

Russian President Putin’s reorientation away from the West and toward Beijing in the aftermath of the 2014 Crimea annexation seems to have been accepted, if not embraced, by the Russian public. Ironically, although the Obama administration planned for a pivot to Asia in 2009, it may be the Russians, not the Americans, who have successfully pivoted eastward. Russia may not be a fully equal partner to China, but the country is less isolated because of its ties to China. And the Russian public senses that Moscow and Beijing’s combined ability to counter US influence internationally provides more benefits than costs.

Methodology

This analysis is based on data from multiple surveys conducted by the Levada Analytical Center in Russia. The first survey was conducted August 20–26, 2020, among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample comprised 1,601 people 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The surveys were conducted as telephone interviews (CATI) on a random sample (RDD) of personal phone numbers and landlines."

The second survey was conducted January 29–February 2, 2021, among a representative sample of Russian urban and rural residents. The sample comprised 1,616 people 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes.