Despite Trump Withdrawal, Americans Back Paris Climate Agreement

Most Americans—including a majority of Republicans—favor a range of measures to reverse or adapt to climate change.

On the first day of his second term, President Donald Trump signed several executive orders to repeal critical environmental regulations and initiatives, including one to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. Data from a November 15–17, 2024, Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Ipsos survey and the 2024 Chicago Council Survey (CCS), fielded June 21–July 1, 2024, finds broad public support for federal measures to reverse or adapt to the negative effects of climate change. While Republicans are less convinced that climate change is a serious problem and are less willing to invest resources to address it than other partisans, majorities of GOP supporters still favor domestic climate action.

Key Findings

• Majorities of Americans across the board favor measures to reverse or adapt to the negative effects of climate change, like investing in climate resilient infrastructure (80%) and maintaining the US commitment to the Paris Agreement (69%), but Republicans are the least likely to favor such policies.
• Given that the United States is one of the largest producers of global greenhouse gas emissions, most Americans believe it should finance international efforts to address climate change (63%), but a majority of Republicans (57%) do not agree.
• Four in 10 Americans believe climate change is a serious and pressing problem that should be addressed now, even if it involves significant costs (43%), but there are stark partisan differences in this view: while 73 percent of Democrats agree with this statement, only 13 percent of Republicans see it the same way and instead, about half (52%) believe the United States should deal with climate change by taking low-cost steps.
• Most Americans believe climate change is real (86%), but they are divided on the root of the problem: four in 10 (40%) Americans overall and pluralities of Independents and Republicans (42% and 39%, respectively) believe it is caused by a combination of human activity and natural processes, while a third (31%) overall and a majority of Democrats (53%) believe it is primarily caused by human activity. Finally, 15 percent believe it is primarily caused by natural processes alone.

Republicans Favor Climate Regulations and Initiatives . . .

In 2024, the United States experienced 17 severe storms, four tropical cyclones, one wildfire, and two winter storms, all of which resulted in the deaths of 418 Americans and loss of more than $1 billion. In a recent survey by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, half of Americans said they have personally experienced the effects of global warming (50%) and nearly two-thirds said they are somewhat or very worried about the issue (64%).

Given their experiences, most Americans favor a wide range of measures to reverse or adapt to the negative effects of climate change. Among the general public, investing in climate resilient infrastructure (80%), taxing greenhouse-gas-emitting corporations (72%), and offering tax credits for the adoption of renewable energy technologies (71%) are the most popular policy options.

Majorities of Republicans also favor such climate action but at lower levels than the general public and other partisans. However, they make an exception for imposing tariffs on imported goods from countries not meeting global greenhouse emission standards (66%) and building more nuclear power plants to reduce reliance on fossil fuels (60%), which they are about as likely as other partisans to support.

Despite Trump’s negative view of the Paris Agreement, a majority of Americans (69%) favor maintaining the US commitment to it. The United States became an official signatory to the agreement—which aims to limit the global surface temperature to just two degrees above preindustrial levels—in 2016, but in 2020, it became the first nation to withdraw from it, under the first Trump administration. The United States rejoined the agreement under the administration of President Joe Biden, but it is set to be withdrawn for a second time now that Trump has returned to the Oval Office.

The president may receive backlash from Democrats and Independents, the majority of whom (88% and 67%, respectively) favor remaining a signatory to the pact. Half of Republicans (50%) also favor maintaining the US commitment to the agreement, but doing so is the least favorable climate policy among those this survey presented to GOP supporters.

Public support for the Paris Agreement appears unchanged since 2023, at which point nearly seven in 10 Americans (68%) said the United States should participate in the pact. Democrats have remained steadfast in their support for this international agreement since 2016, while Republicans have maintained their opposition to it. Support for the climate accords among GOP supporters dipped in 2017, when Trump announced the first withdrawal from the agreement, and again in January 2021, just two months after the withdrawal took effect.

. . . But Do Not Support the United States Financing International Climate Action

In addition to taking domestic steps, most Americans also believe the United States should finance international efforts to address climate change (63%), given that it is one of the largest producers of global greenhouse gas emissions. While majorities of Democrats (86%) and Independents (60%) favor the United States financing international climate action, the majority of Republicans oppose it (57%).

This partisan divide is not unusual: In the 2023 CCS, Republicans were the least likely to say it is somewhat or very important for the United States to be a world leader in combatting climate change (52%), compared to three quarters of the general public (75%). And while most Americans broadly favored the United States aiding countries that are disproportionately affected by climate change, Republicans were, again, the least likely to favor extending a helping hand. Finally, when asked in the 2024 CCS how the United States should allocate its resources, most Republicans (57%) said it should reduce its involvement in world affairs because it has limited resources and its own problems at home. By contrast, a plurality of Democrats (39%) believe the United States has enough resources to take care of its own problems at home and take a leading role in world affairs.

Taken together, these data suggest that Republicans are unwilling to invest resources internationally that could be used to advance domestic priorities, while Democrats see the United States as having the capacity and responsibility to lead globally—particularly on issues like climate change that require international cooperation to effectively address.

Climate Change Is a Peripheral Issue for Republicans

Despite rapidly rising surface temperatures, more frequent and severe weather events, and the increasing economic costs of weather disasters, climate change seems to be a peripheral issue for Republicans. Data from an August 2024 Chicago Council-Ipsos survey show that half of Americans (49%) consider climate change a critical threat to the vital interests of the United States in the next 10 years. While nearly eight in 10 Democrats (77%) consider climate change a critical threat, just two in 10 Republicans (21%) express the same concern.

Republicans have consistently expressed lower perceptions of threat from climate change since the Chicago Council first started asking this question in 2008. Comparatively, the share of Democrats who view climate change as a critical threat has grown significantly over the last decade, reaching its highest level in 2023 (82%).

Instead, Republicans are—and have become—far more concerned about issues like immigration (83%), international terrorism (65%), and China’s territorial ambitions (61%) (see appendix Table 1). In the 2024 CCS, a bare majority of Republicans say American leaders are giving the issue of climate change too much attention (53%), while issues like immigration (84%) and competition with China (62%) are not receiving enough. Democrats, on the other hand, are most likely to say the issue of climate change does not receive enough attention from American leaders (78%) (see appendix Table 2).

While climate change is a top concern for Democrats, these data show that other issues take precedence for Republicans. Perhaps for this reason, they are less inclined to take immediate steps or invest significant resources to address the issue of climate change. A bare majority believe that since the effects of climate change will be gradual, the United States should take gradual, low-cost steps to address them (52%). In addition, a third of Republicans say that until they are sure climate change is really a problem, the United States shouldn’t incur any economic costs to address it (33%). Just 13 percent of Republicans believe immediate climate action is necessary, regardless of the cost.

By contrast, a plurality of Americans overall (43%) and seven in 10 Democrats (73%) believe that because climate change is a serious and pressing problem, the United States should try taking immediate steps to address it—even if it involves significant costs.

In the last two decades, Americans have somewhat fluctuated in their sense of urgency and willingness to commit financial resources toward climate action. The share of those who believe the United States should take immediate steps dropped by 14 percentage points between 2006 and 2010—likely because of the 2008 financial crisis—but steadily increased to a high of 51 percent in 2019. Today, 43 percent of Americans believe immediate steps need to be taken to address climate change, falling back to the 2006 level (43%).

Over time, Republicans have grown less convinced that climate change is a serious and pressing problem and are now less willing to incur economic costs to address it (a decline of 16 percentage points since 2006). On the other hand, Democrats have grown more resolute (an increase of 20 percentage points since 2006).

Americans Believe Climate Change Is Real but Disagree on Its Cause  

Another factor contributing to Republicans’ views of climate action is their sense of personal responsibility, or lack thereof, for climate change. Most Americans believe climate change is real (86%), but they are divided on what causes it: four in 10 (40%) believe it is caused by a combination of human activity and natural processes, but nearly a third (31%) believe it is primarily caused by human activity. Independents and Republicans are most likely to believe climate change is caused by a combination of factors (42% and 39%, respectively), whereas a bare majority of Democrats place sole responsibility on human activity (53%).

Fewer than two in 10 Americans believe climate change is primarily caused by natural processes (15%), like changes to the Earth’s orbit or variations in solar activity, but nearly three in 10 Republicans 28%) hold this view. Republicans are also most likely to say they do not believe in climate change at all (23%), compared to only 12 percent of the general public.

Because they are less likely to believe climate change is a result of human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation, Republicans may not feel personally responsible for addressing the issue. This view may contribute to their lower levels of concern about climate change.

Conclusion

Despite the partisan tug of war playing out on Capitol Hill, Americans across the board support efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, the data show that climate change is a peripheral issue for Republicans, who are more concerned about issues like immigration and the economy than other partisans. With the support of Republicans in Congress and apathy of GOP supporters, Trump is expected to reverse many of the federal climate regulations implemented by the Biden administration—including parts of Biden’s signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act.