Americans Support Help to Ukraine, Even out of Own Pockets

As the war in Ukraine enters its second month, the Biden administration continues to work with allies to enforce powerful economic sanctions on Russia and “choke Russia’s assets,” while also reassuring the American public that the United States does not intend to enter a military conflict with Russia on behalf of Ukraine. Recent polls show that majorities across the political spectrum support many of the specific policies that the administration has put in place in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

A March 1-2 NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist poll finds that approval of President Biden’s handling of the Ukrainian crisis has jumped over 15 points in the last month, with a majority of 52 percent of the public now saying they approve of his approach (34% in February). Some of this bump, especially among Democrats, may be attributable to the strong message that the President sent during the State of the Union address on March 1. The increase in President Biden’s Ukraine-specific approval rating comes mostly from an increase among his Democratic base and does not seem to have translated to an increase in his overall approval rating, according to most polls.

Public Backs Sanctions Despite Energy Implications

This week when they head to the pump, most American drivers will be paying over $4 for a gallon of gas. Driven up in part by the conflict and US sanctions, prices have come down slightly from the record highs they hit in recent weeks, but are still significantly higher than average. Despite the impact on their personal finances, recent polling from a number of sources finds that higher energy prices are a cost that Americans seem to be willing to pay to support Ukraine. American willingness to endure these price hikes may come from a sense of shared democratic values with Ukraine. A March 7-8 Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 63 percent of Americans are willing to pay more for fuel and gas because it is “worth it to defend another democratic country.” Among those who say they are willing to pay more for gasoline, about two-thirds combined would pay more than $1 a gallon more than currently paying, including 25 percent who are willing to pay “as much as it takes,” 11 percent “more than $2 a gallon more,” and 32 percent “between $1 and $2 more per gallon.”

In the Marist poll, seven in 10 say they support sanctions on Russia even if those sanctions result in higher energy prices in the United States. A March 4-6 Quinnipiac poll found a similar level of support for a ban on Russian oil, even if it led to higher gasoline prices for Americans. This support was strongly bipartisan, with 82 percent of Democrats, 66 percent of Republicans, and 70 percent of Independents supporting the proposed ban. In line with public opinion on this topic, on March 8 President Biden signed an Executive Order to ban the import of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal to the United States, citing “bipartisan support” for the policy.

General support for a sanctions-led response to the crisis also remains high. According to the Marist poll, 83 percent of Americans support sanctions against Russia by the United States and its allies. In fact, 80 percent of Americans actually think that the United States should impose additional sanctions on Russia (Reuters/Ipsos). This number has also been increasing in recent weeks.

Americans Support Sending Weapons, Not Troops

In his State of the Union address, President Biden was clear that US forces would not be intervening directly on Ukraine’s behalf, saying, “Our forces are not going to Europe to fight (for) Ukraine. But to defend our NATO allies in the event that Putin decides to keep moving West… The US and our allies will defend every inch of the territory that is NATO territory.”

The public seems to be generally on board with this approach. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, majorities across party lines agreed that, given the current economic climate, the United States cannot afford to be taking military action in Ukraine (55% Republicans, 57% Democrats, 54% Independents). Only 35 percent of Americans think that that the United States should send troops to Ukraine to help defend it from the Russian invasion, and fewer than four in 10 think that the United States should support the Ukrainian army with airstrikes.

Several prominent figures have called for the United States to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, though this would require US and NATO forces to patrol Ukrainian airspace, and shoot down any Russian planes that violate the no-fly zone. The US public seems to be less sure is the imposition of a no-fly zone (NFZ) over Ukraine. Two separate polls conducted by CBS News and Yahoo! with YouGov find that, while Americans initially appear supportive of a NFZ, that support decreases significantly to below the majority threshold when they are informed that it would potentially entail shooting down Russian military planes and could trigger a war between the United States and Russia. Americans are more supportive of providing indirect military support to Ukraine via arms sales to the country (70% support). This represents a dramatic shift from July of 2021, when the Chicago Council Survey found that a majority of Americans (56%) did not support arms sales to Ukraine.

While Americans do not seem to support direct military intervention on behalf of Ukraine, their commitment to NATO allies remains strong. The Quinnipiac poll finds that nearly eight in 10 Americans support a direct US military response if Putin goes beyond Ukraine and attacks a NATO country (79%). A March 7-13 Pew Survey also finds that nearly eight in 10 support keeping large numbers of US military forces in NATO countries near Ukraine (77%). And in the July 2021 Chicago Council Survey, 59% supported defending NATO allies Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia if they were attacked by Russia.

Americans also seem to be acutely aware of the human impact of a prolonged military conflict in Ukraine, and stand prepared to accept refugees fleeing the Russian invasion. Both the Reuters/Ipsos and Quinnipiac polls find that around three-quarters of Americans support taking in Ukrainian refugees (74% Reuters/Ipsos, 78% Quinnipiac). This is a much higher percentage than those who were willing to accept refugees from Syria (42% in 2017) or Afghanistan (55% in 2021).

Despite Support for Ukraine, Americans Do Have Some Concerns

Both in polling and in the demonstrations taking place around the United States, it is clear that Americans sympathize with the plight of the Ukrainian people. But Americans are concerned about the risks associated with conflict with Russia. About seven in 10 Republicans (66%), Democrats (72%), and Independents (69%) agree that taking military action in Ukraine will encourage attacks on the United States and the West. When asked about more specific consequences in the Marist poll, nearly eight in 10 Americans say they are concerned that Russia will wage cyberattacks in the US (78%), and seven in 10 worry about the use of nuclear weapons (70%). This is right in line with Council data, which consistently show that preventing cyberattacks (83% very important) and preventing the spread of nuclear weapons (75% very important) are two of Americans’ top foreign policy goals. Typically, the American public sees these goals as significantly more important than things like promoting and defending human rights in other countries (41% very important) and protecting weaker nations against foreign aggression (32% very important).

Given these long-held American priorities, public opinion on the crisis in Ukraine may be expected to change if and when Russia begins to threaten the United States and its allies more seriously with measures like cyberattacks, chemical, or nuclear weapons. But for now, the American public’s support remains strong with a plurality saying that the United States is, in fact, not being tough enough in the steps they have taken to support Ukraine so far (per Pew: 42% not enough, 32% about the right amount, 7% too tough, 19% don’t know).