Survey: Mexicans, Americans Agree USMCA Will Benefit Their Economy

MAY 6, 2019

Despite tensions between the United States and Mexico sparked from the Trump administration’s push to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), along with the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs, Mexicans and Americans largely agree on the benefits and importance of their economic relationship. A new survey report from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Buendía y Laredo finds broad public support for the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and both publics expect it to benefit their nation’s economy. The levels of support for USMCA are even higher than the strong support for NAFTA found before a new deal was completed.

Key findings from the report, “Mexicans, Americans Share Positive Views of USMCA Trade Agreement,” include:

  • After the agreement was signed in November 2018, majorities of both Mexicans (80 percent) and Americans (70 percent) thought that the new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade will be good for their country’s economy.
  • This level of support is even higher than the already-strong support for NAFTA. Surveyed before the new trade agreement was reached, majorities of Mexicans (78 percent) and Americans (63 percent) both said NAFTA was good for their country’s economy, marking all-time highs in both countries.
  • Majorities of Mexicans and Americans say international trade is good for their nation’s economy, good for creating jobs, and good for consumers like them.
  • Both publics are concerned that a trade war between the two countries would hurt their local economy, with more Mexicans (86 percent) concerned about a trade war than Americans (52 percent).

For more findings, graphics and methodology, download the full reports.

US Methodology

This report’s analysis of support for USMCA are based on data from interviews conducted January 11-13, 2019 by Ipsos Public Affairs using their large-scale, nationwide online probability panel, the KnowledgePanel OmniWeb. A total of 1,019 interviews were completed among a weighted national sample of adults 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The margin of error on weighted data is ±3 percentage points for the full sample.

Additional results come from the 2018 Chicago Council Survey of the American public on foreign policy, a project of the Lester Crown Center on US Foreign Policy. The 2018 Chicago Council Survey was conducted by GfK Custom Research using their large-scale, nationwide online research panel July 12-31, 2018 among a weighted national sample of 2,046 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 US states and the District of Columbia. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is ±2.37, including a design effect of 1.1954.

For both surveys, partisan identification is based on respondents’ answer to a standard partisan self-identification question: “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?”

The 2018 Chicago Council Survey was made possible by the generous support of the Crown family, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the US-Japan Foundation, the Korea Foundation, and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.

Mexico Methodology

Results reported from Mexico are based on two different surveys conducted by Buendía & Laredo. The first nationwide face-to-face survey was conducted from August 17 to August 23, 2018. The second nationwide face-to-face survey was conducted from November 15 to November 20, 2018. Both surveys are based on a weighted national sample of 1,000 Mexican adults, 18 years of age or older, who reside in housing units within the national territory. Assuming a design effect (deff) of 1.3, the sampling margin of error of both surveys is ±3.53 percentage points. For more details, please contact us at contacto@buendíaylaredo.com.